Women Trying to Survive Another Day in the Nagorno-Karabakh Region, (C) Le Journal International
The situation in this area of the world is very difficult. It is a fr****ing big mess. Yes, I say it, but it is the truth. Armenia, Artsakh and Azerbaijan are fighting for a piece of territory in the Transcaucasian region. This area, controlled by the Armenian and Artsakhian forces for the last thirty years, was given by Russia to the Azeri in the last century. It is de jure part of Azerbaijan. It should not be because the ethnic majority is Armenian, for more than ninety percent. Another part of Azerbaijan would be better in the Armenian sphere; the region of Nakhchivan. Unfortunately, since it is bordering Turkey, an enemy, it is more difficult to claim it.
Map of the Conflictual Region in the Transcaucasian Area, (C) Al Jazeera
The problem was created long before the dissolution of the USSR, but this event gives Azerbaijan independence. The population of Nagorno-Karabakh did not like the fact that they would not get assistance from the Russians, not anymore owned by them. They also felt more Armenian — it is normal when most of your population is — and decided to take action. While the National Council of Nagorno-Karabakh — the governing body put in place by the Azeri government — and the Armenian government jointly decided that this piece of territory was in the wrong country, the population decided to declare independence as Artsakh. Nobody recognizes this movement as the National Council is not Azerbaijan. If the Azeri and the Armenians would have made a deal of that sort, which will never happen, it would have been recognized more easily.
Even if most of the people are on the side of Armenia, the way they handle the situation is catastrophic. In modern times, war does not worth anything. Most of the region in Karabakh is controlled by Armenia by the Artsakhian population and they do not necessarily ask for the Armenian opinion when doing some things. In a way, even if they are both Armenian and want to be a single nation, they look disunited, which is a big issue for international help and recognition of the situation. Declaring independence from the Azeri government is making the conflict more difficult than if they had only switched sides. In being free, they are considered a third country in the conflict and will lose more if the war ended.
Fighters in the Nagorno-Karabakh Region, (C) New York Times
What we have to watch closely is the presence and help of Türkiye and Russia in the conflict. The Russian are backing the Armenians because they are both Christian countries and the Turkish is backing the other side because of the same reason as their religion is more similar. It is also causing some tension between both superpowers as they are not gaining anything and the more the conflict is longer, the more they lose. Something very tragic is the involvement of Syrian refugees by the Turkish government in the conflict, a thing Ankara will never confirm you. They are recruited in a camp near the town of Gaziantep, in Turkey, but one hour from the Syrian border. They are promised money, a rare possession for refugees. They have to fight there with the Azeri and Turkish armies against Artsakh, Armenia and the little Russians, as they prefer giving military materials to being on the ground. Ankara prefers losing Syrian than losing Turkish citizens … Israel is starting to get involved too but the interest in the conflict is unknown. It is difficult to know what they want. We will see in the future what is going on with Israel helping everyone.
What is the future of this region? It is very difficult to tell. The involvement of foreign entities does not help to resolve the countries, especially if they arm both sides. Since the skirmish that starts at the end of September, more than 550 civilians and army officers on both sides died. International organizations said that they were not happy with the Armenian invasion of Azerbaijan but during the last thirty years, no resolution was passed about it. The United Nations did nothing in the potential resolution of that conflict. We know that technically the UN military force is not capable of taking care of the issue and for the moment. They are not able to maintain peacekeeping operations. The problem is that to obtain that level of peace and stability in the region, they have to help both countries solve their issues. They are saying that it is bad but are not helping at all. With the political and military presence of the UN and NATO, they would stabilize the talks in the Transcaucasian area and would counter the Russian, Turkish and Israeli intervention. Those three nations, even if they are not on the same side, have too much power in this area and would take leverage if they win at some point or are giving their side the victory.
Armenian Tanks in the Zone of Conflict, (C) BBC
The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) will not be solved in the next couple of years. They are too far from a resolution. The fact that some countries outside of their jurisdiction, allies on some sides, are giving armament before peace talks is a sign that this specific war will not end before Christmas, and I did not say 2020 … The outsiders are helping themselves before the others, to show that they have some power and leverage and it is the population of that region that pays the price. If we continue on that rhythm, more than 1000 civilians will be killed, only since the conflict restart for good during the summer. Like we often say, one is too many, and the day we will see a permanent resolution, treaty, or just the end of the conflict is far. Unfortunately, it is a long day in the making that some will not have the chance to see. Should Artsakh be independent? Not at all. Should it be owned by Azerbaijan or Armenia? Probably Armenia, except if the Azeri who de jure owns that land accepts to respect the Armenian well … and stop killing them…