Zelensky on the Front Line, (C) BBC
This week, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin invaded Україна to protect the right of Russian citizens living in Eastern Ukraine's self-proclaimed Republics. Those people, living in the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, had previously seceded and formed their governments. While Россия thinks that their actions are legitimate, the international community, mostly from the Western World, thinks that those actions are irresponsible and punishable by the rules of law. To understand how we got to this point of no return, we need to know the history of Ukraine and Western Russia from the beginning.
The first inhabitant we are sure of in Ukraine and Western Russia are the Khazars. The Khaganate lasted slightly more than three hundred years from the 650s to the 960s. In the beginning, their territory was around Northern Caucasus, having their capital in Balanjar (probably modern-day Makhachkala, Russia). However, in the end, their territory was four times bigger, reaching the eastern part of modern Ukraine. It was a pluricultural and multi-religious nation that also included Christian individuals. Even if Christianity was present in the western part of their Empire, a lot of nations, especially the Byzantine, wanted to eradicate the Khazars and their barbaric ideology. They got in alliance with other smaller nations around, that became vassals, but it was not enough to attack the core of the Khanate. However, what the Byzantine Emperor did not know at that time is that he would have unexpected help from Scandinavia.
Rurik and his brothers were Varangians from Western Scandinavia. Late in the 9th century, Finnish and Slavs from present-day Western Russia asked some Varangians to come and rule the land for themselves. The Norse Rurik and two of his brothers accept the offer and left present-day Sweden to come to the cities now named Novgorod, Beloozero, and Izborsk. Each brother had one city, but no kingdom. Two members of his armed guard, Askold and Dir, ask to go to Constantinople, and it was accepted. On their way, they found a little village, now Kyiv, and took it for themselves. After making a mess in Constantinople, they return to their possession. Not long after, the other brothers of Rurik died, and he ruled the three cities for himself. When he died, Prince Oleg, probably a brother-in-law of the ruler, became regent for Igor. One of his first actions was to go south and take the cities of Smolensk and Liubech, before killing Askold and Dir. Then, he established the capital of his newly formed Kievan Rus’ in Kyiv and called it the “mother of Rus’ cities.”
The Kievan Rus’ became more important during the reign of Vladimir Svyaotslavich the Great between 980 and 1015. He was tasked by his father Sviatoslav to rule the city of Novgorod the Great. When his father died, Yaropolk, one of Vladimir’s brothers, killed the others who could have argued for the legitimacy of his leadership. The powerful individuals remaining were Sviatoslav and Vladimir. While the first was ruling the Rus’, the second fled to Norway to ask for help from King Haakon Sigurdsson. Since they were very close to each other and share the same roots, the king accepted that Vladimir leaves the kingdom with troops of Norse warriors. After killing opponents and people who argue his legitimacy, like the ruler of Polotsk, he took Kyiv and slew Yaropolk. It makes him the only potential ruler of all the Kievan Rus’.
Map of the Khazar Khaganate, (C) Wikimedia & Territory of the Kievan Rus', (C) Unknown
Since his kingdom was important and close to many others that had diverse religions and cultures, emissaries from all religions wanted him to convert. He finally settled on Christianity as he did not want to be Muslim or Jewish. He said of the first that it is incompatible. They cannot drink alcohol or eat pork. The second is that they are not strong because they lost Jerusalem. Now called St. Vladimir of Kyiv by Eastern European Orthodox, he built many churches and schools, help the poor, and teach the Bible to everyone. During his rule, he helped the Byzantine Empire during a civil war by sending a regiment and pushing back a Pecheneg invasion in his homeland. However, he never started a war, which is rare at the time for a ruler. Just before his death, his son Yaroslav had stopped paying tribute. He wanted to give him a lesson but never had the chance to. He died in a well organize kingdom in 1015.
After four years of struggle between the brothers, the period of glory continued with the reign of Yaroslav Vladimirovich the Wise from 1019 to 1054. He started as the Prince of Rostov and later the Prince of Novgorod. Most of the successors to the throne ruled Novgorod the Great before having the chance to rule the Kievan Rus’ in Kyiv. He allied himself with the ruler of Poland and Sweden to counter the Byzantine hegemony in the region but needed their help first for another reason. Around 1024, one of his brothers, Mstislav, wanted to get revenge for the imprisonment of their brother Sudislav and won the battle. The kingdom was divided at the Dnieper, in present central Ukraine, in between the two, and stayed that way until Mstislav died in 1036.
After that, he chose his fight precisely to be sure to win. He decided to attack the Byzantine directly with the help of one of his sons and succeeded. However, because of a storm on the sea, they lost everything they had won. On the other side, he also received threats from the Pecheneg. They often entered the kingdom and sometimes were very close to Kyiv. He finally decided to build a line of forts on important eastern cities and get rid of them in a decisive battle in 1036. The Pecheneg never come back. After Mstislav’s death and the retreat of the Pecheneg, he and his Swedish wife constructed the Saint Sophia Cathedral, the Monasteries of Saint George and Saint Irene, and the Golden Gate of Kyiv, and established the first code of law. Today, Yaroslav is still considered one of the most important Ukrainians to have ever lived.
After the collapse of the Kievan Rus’ two hundred years after the death of Yaroslav and the Mongol invasion in Eastern Europe, the state was fragmented into multiple small nations. The most important of them became the Golden Horde, part of the Mongol Empire, and the Galicia-Volhynia. The last was ruled by descendants of the Rurikovich Kievan Rus’ dynasty or their relatives. For the next seven hundred years or so, Kyiv, or Ukraine, would not be reunited.
Galicia-Volhynia was a medium kingdom south of Poland, and close to Moldova. In their history, they had four capitals, and three of them are in modern Ukraine. The most important one, and the last, was Lviv. Volhynia was technically a vassal of the Golden Horde, however, was highly autonomous. Not long after the Kievan collapse, they change their name to the Kingdom of Ruthenia. Being a state close to Poland, Lithuania, Austria, Hungary, and Muscovy, everyone around was interested in that land. Around one hundred years later after relative stability and autonomy, in the 1340s, the territory was split between Poland and Lithuania, as the Golden Horde was losing ground to the Muscovian troops. Finally, in 1569, the Union of Lublin formed the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. All the land that Lithuania had was owned by the Polish part of the Union.
On the eastern front, it was a different story. The Golden Horde had eaten most of the small states that was existing in Western Russia. They let the people rule their cities but had not much more power. Even if they were part of a large empire, they kept their traditions, customs, and religions. They also kept their ruler as puppets, thus continuing the Rurikovich dynasty. While the Mongol Empire collapsed, the Golden Horde was still there. One of the smaller states, located around Moscow today, took advantage of the situation to be close to the Khan; he marries his sister. Over time, the Khan gave more land to him, creating the Grand Duchy of Moscow (Muscovy) in 1263, which lasted until 1547. As time goes by, Muscovy became too big too fast for the Golden Horde and the Slavic lived longer, seeing the Horde fall and becoming multiple states in 1502. The Golden Horde, who had the remaining territory of today’s Ukraine, lost most of it to the Crimean Khanate around 1441 and the rest around 1502. Muscovy continues to grow and became the Russian Empire in 1547.
Modern Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, (C) Wikimedia & Austrian and Russian Territorial Expansion, (C) Washington Post
The three major powers of the area became enemies of each other, making it more difficult for people living in cities neighbouring other nations. The major power of the area consisted of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Russian Empire, and the Ottoman Empire, owner of the Crimean March. The Cossacks in Central Ukraine had enough of their overlord and Russia was interested in getting them on their side. That led to the Russo-Polish War, also called the Thirteen Years’ War (1654–1667). The Cossack Hetmanate and the Russian forces won, and Kyiv, among other cities, was given to the Empire. Fighting along the Polish was the Crimean Khanate, and they suffered great loss in the aftermath of the war. The Ottomans were afraid of the Russian hegemony being more important in what is Eastern Ukraine, close to the Khanate, and that led to multiple wars against each other. Russia only gains little.
While the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was becoming weak, some were taking advantage of it, like the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Prussia. From 1772 to 1795, the Commonwealth was divided among the three, thus making the Russian Empire bigger and getting them closer to modern-day Western Ukraine. They now owned the east and central parts of the country. At the same time, the Ottomans were not happy with their rivals becoming stronger and bigger. They had recently signed a treaty with the Crimean Khanate granting them independence but, the Russians took advantage of it, and Crimea became a protectorate. The Russians declared war before the Ottomans, and the Turks were defeated. That was the start of the end for the Ottoman Empire. At the moment, the only missing part of future Ukraine was the western portion owned by the Austro-Hungarians.
At the beginning of the 20th century, Austro-Hungary finally collapses. When it was dissolved, nobody gave attention to some eastern portion of the Empire, and Western Ukraine became independent of everyone. The Russian Empire also collapse, as did the Ottomans too. The Soviet Socialist Republic was created. To keep their power over most of the land, they created modern vassals state into a Federation, and Ukraine was officially created, without Crimea. After some skirmishes and wars between them and their neighbours, most of Western Ukraine joined Ukraine SSR while the rest was taken from others.
It took a couple of years to stabilize Ukraine, the Soviet Socialist Republic itself, and to confirm the border. After World War II, some other smaller pieces of Western Ukraine, which were owned by Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Czechoslovakia, were given to Ukraine. One small piece of land southwest was given to Moldova; now the auto-proclaimed Transnistrian Republic. Some piece east-northeast was kept by Russia, like Sochi and Rostov-on-Don who were part of the Ukrainian sphere briefly. However, they also gave back. Between 1954 and the fall of the USSR, only one change was made to the territory. Khrushchev gave the whole Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine. It was a poisoned gift that still gives nightmares to some people as it was full of ethnic Russian. He knew what the future holds before us. He gave reasons that they deserved it, but we all know that is not the real reason.
Ukrainian Growth, (C) Wikimedia
When the USSR collapsed around 1990, Ukraine became independent. The territory included the same territory as today, with Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Over time, Ukrainians try to regain some sort of unity; however, it never fully worked. They never return to the greatness of Kievan Rus’. The Russians either. Most of the ethnic Russians stayed where they were living, and it showed in the election results. People in Ukraine are voting as if the country was still divided between the Commonwealth and the Russian Empire. Ukrainians in the northwest are taking a more liberal approach and the Russians in the southwest are taking a more conservative path. Today, the Dnieper and the Azov Seas separate the Russian and Ukrainian regions.
Until 2013, Ukraine was relatively quiet. There was no unity between the East and the West, or the ethnic Russians and Ukrainians, but there was no war or skirmish. That changed very quickly. In 2013, President Viktor Yanukovych, elected by the ethnic Russians mostly, refused to sign a free trade agreement with the European Union. The population of the country, mostly in the western part, as seen the action as an act to get closer to Vladimir Putin and they rebel, making the Revolution of Dignity, also called the Maiden Revolution. Yanukovych was not able to control the rebellion, and fled the country, asking for assistance from his friend and ally Vladimir. Russia cleans the revolt but also protects some of “their citizens” by helping Luhansk and Donetsk to create auto-proclaimed republics. An interim government was formed in Kyiv and finished the mandate of Viktor Yanukovych. This led to the election of Petro Poroshenko in 2014. He was mostly on the other side of the spectrum, which made the ethnic Russians furious. People in Crimea made a referendum, not recognized by Kyiv, where more than ninety percent wanted to join Russia. When the result came to the ear of Vladimir Putin, he invaded Crimea.
People in Luhansk and Donetsk wanted to form a new country protected by the Russian Federation, called Novorossiya (New Russia), with similar power and structure to what Belarus is now. The two wanted Crimea to join them and it never works. As Crimea was directly included in Russia, Donetsk and Luhansk were not. For Ukraine and many other countries, the last two were considered secessionists. They finally decided to continue their way independently but helped each other in countering pro-Ukrainian in the territory. They were given armaments by Russia, but Putin and his army never returned until 2022, as they had not done an official referendum. That brings us to today, with Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin fighting each other. Russia wants to protect Crimea and reaffirmed Luhansk and Donetsk’s independence as Ukraine wants to have their territory back. In between the 1200s and the 1900s, the country had been divided in two and it still shows today. Even if Zelensky wins the war, Ukrainian reunification might be difficult, unfortunately.
It is tempting for Putin to take more land because it is full of energetic resources, and it finishes what Khrushchev had started in 1954. Khrushchev gave Russian pieces of land to other countries as he knew the USSR would not last. In doing so, it gave a casus belli to his successors, and the one to use it is Putin. Then, Russia continues to grow and is surpassing everything it had done in the past.
Pro-Russian Rebellion, (C) Wikimedia, & Conflict Map, (C) BBC
Are the separatist movements legitimate?
Yes. The claims are legitimate. The Russian population established in the country does not fit with the Ukrainians. It could be worst if after the war it stayed as a status quo or if Ukraine gets it back. There are changes to be made in the country if the separatist movement stops. The people or regions who do not feel included in the country can ask for more rights or power. If not obtained, they have the right to auto-determination, as long as the referendum is backed by the central government and international entities. If they break out of the country without asking, it is not legitimate.
Are Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republic legitimate?
No. There is a way to do things and it was not properly executed and managed. A referendum should have been made everywhere in the country with two simple questions; should Donetsk and Luhansk be independent? If not, do you want the Donbas to have more autonomy? If needed, there could have been international observers to be sure that everything would be done properly. The result would have been the only possible answer. Luhansk and Donetsk should not have left Ukraine before asking the Ukrainians and the government. That is how diplomacy works.
Who owns Crimea?
Their citizens. It depends on how the war goes but either way, it will go the same results. A referendum should be made with international observers. However, the question would be different; do you want Crimea to be part of Ukraine or Russia? You are probably thinking; they already answered? No, not officially. Both sides should have been present for the result to be authentic and valid. The actual result is lapsed and should be made again. Also, a company like Google, which does Geo-mapping, should return the border to where it was in 2013. A company cannot decide for a country.
What will happen with Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea?
It is difficult to tell, as it depends on the battle on the ground and what the United Nations and NATO are willing to do. We are only sure that it cannot stay that way, and cannot be like what it was in the past. Most of the important international unions and committees are based in Western and Central Europe, far from Russia. They dislike them for their actions and what they are trying to be. I do not think they want the Donbas (both existing entities) to be independent because it would mean that Putin won. Assuming the West is winning, then, the only path is to give more autonomy to that region. If that still does not work, in five years, a referendum should be made for potential independence. For Crimea, since they do not seem to be interested to be Ukrainians, we can ask them the question. However, I do think the West would prefer an independent Crimea to a Russian one. Citizens will decide.
Assuming Putin is winning, Crimea will stay Russian, and the Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic will be independent. It will be difficult for them to live side by side, then I think they will reform as the Donbas People’s Republic, which makes more sense. If Putin and Russia destroy the enemies completely, then Transnistria in Moldova. Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia will probably become independent.
For the moment, they hold a lot of places in Ukraine but do not control it entirely. They will be talking at the border of Ukraine and Belarus which might lead to a status quo. If so, the war will restart in a couple of years. It is unwanted.
What will happen to Zelensky, Putin, and the Donetsk and Luhansk leaders?
If Zelensky is not dead before the end of the conflict, he will remain President of Ukraine and do his best to please every ethnic group in the country. To get all his land back, including Crimea, he needs to accommodate all the Russians living on that part and give them more than what they had. He cannot sanction them to avoid another war. Assuming they lost, I still think we would remain president of what is of Ukraine at the end, as people really like what he has done to the country, fighting until the end. If there is a no-confidence vote, he can return to acting.
For Putin, it depends on the battle on the ground. He controls a lot of places but not the most important ones. If Putin was sitting in the Ukrainian Parliament now, it would be different. We have to acknowledge that Kyiv created Moscow, but that Russia created modern Ukraine and people cannot live with that. Putin is only continuing what he saw when he was a young man in the KGB. Vladimir thinks that it is only a battle and that if he loses it, he does not lose the war. He holds the power and even if a lot of people hate him, even in Russia, he has more power than them and always will have. It is technically his last term, but he can find a loophole in the law, or simply change it to stay longer. No matter the outcome, Vlad will only lose a little, unless Switzerland and Monaco do something important. If for some reason he is killed, I do think Dmitri Medvedev will continue what Putin had started because it would be his only way to keep power.
For the leaders of the secessionist movements, that is another thing. I do think no matter the outcome, they will be persona non grata. If they won, they will be puppets and maybe killed later for friendlier puppets. If they lose, they die. As simple as that.
Leonid Pasechnik - LPR, (C) Kyiv Post & Denis Pushilin - DPR, (C) The Jerusalem Post
What will happen to the refugees?
It depends on if they were living in an occupied zone or not before fleeing. If the independence continues and they were living there, they will have to restart from zero. If the secession stops, they will be relocating somewhere else, probably with money from the government, to give more places to the Russians in their land. If they were living in Western Ukraine for example, I do think they will be able to go back. As I write, around half a million people fled to neighbouring countries, only to wait for the outcomes, having left everything behind.
I have a thought for the Afghan immigrants that took shelter in Ukraine. A lot of cheaper airplane companies from the Middle East pass in Kyiv before going to Western Europe and America, especially stopping in France, Germany, and Canada. Those would do not have enough money, they have to stop here. After being displaced, they are again. Some Afghans were working for Western governments who were sent there temporarily while filling out immigration paperwork. They never had the chance to leave before the Russo-Ukrainian War started.
What impact it will have on energy consumption and distribution in Europe?
It will change the landscape forever. I do not think the Germans, for example, will ever trust the Russians anymore. They will rely on other countries, or try to fill the gap themselves. If Ukraine becomes stable in the future, it can be the replacement, as they have a lot of resources. However, in the short term, Scandinavia and Canada will fill the gap needed by Western European countries. Russia will not be able to give more resources to other countries, only their allies, which will reduce the profit.
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To conclude, it is difficult to speculate on what will happen as the war is not done. Talks will be held soon. However, we see what is happening on the field and at the United Nations and it gives us a perspective on the future for Ukraine and Russia. Ethnic Russians living in Ukraine wanted more autonomy and freedom and Russia on their demand came to help. Ukraine was against every measure of those sorts because they wanted to counter their neighbor’s hegemony and that led to the war. There is a way to do things and it was not respected. If it had been done the proper way, it would not have led to this. The war in Ukraine is Vladimir Putin, Nikita Khrushchev, and Viktor Yanukovych’s fault. As clear as that. Now that the war is well underway, we can only wish that Ukraine, Russia, and ethnic Russians are happy at the end with the outcome. Vladimir the Great and Yaroslav the Wise, ancestors to Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky (and me) are watching. The thing we know is that Russia will never be greater than the Kievan Rus’ and will never have Kyiv back, the “mother of Rus’ cities.”
Luhansk Russian Citizen Celebrating Invasion, (C) Reuters